Gadgets & Workspaces · Story 10

SpaceX has to grow 60x in a decade to justify a $1.75 trillion valuation. It's an impossible bar | Fortune

SpaceX's upcoming IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation sets staggering growth targets that analysts say are impossible. To justify the price, SpaceX would need to increase revenue from $18.7 billion to $1.1 trillion in a decade, a pace no company has ever achieved.

The valuation debate highlights the gap between speculative AI-driven optimism and the financial realities of high-growth companies. It also raises questions about how Wall Street prices risk in the era of hype-driven public offerings.

Key details

• SpaceX's expected IPO market cap of $1.75 trillion would make it the most valuable company to go public.
• The company lost $4.9 billion in 2025 on $18.7 billion in revenue, according to its S-1 filing.
• Valuation expert David Trainer calculates SpaceX needs $1.1 trillion in annual revenue by 2035 to justify the price, requiring 50% year-over-year growth for a decade.
• That trajectory would demand a $360 billion revenue increase in a single year, exceeding any company's past performance.

Discussion angles

• Many commenters dismiss the valuation as unrealistic, with one calling it fraud and others pointing to the underwriters' incentives.
• A frequently cited counterpoint is the belief that SpaceX's AI business could generate explosive growth, though skeptics question the viability of such models.
• Several users criticize Elon Musk's track record, arguing that Tesla's profits were historically propped up by regulatory credits rather than genuine business success.
• Some commenters connect the valuation to broader political grievances, calling for prosecution of billionaires and the Trump administration.