The Australia Desk · Story 9

A mathematical analysis on gains with the new CGT model

A Reddit post on r/AusFinance provides a mathematical analysis of the new CGT model, using a $309,000 gain scenario to show a tax increase from $73,000 to $131,000 for top-bracket taxpayers. The post has sparked debate over the realism of the scenario and the chosen timeframe.

The analysis highlights how proposed CGT changes could significantly increase tax burdens on large capital gains, potentially altering investment strategies for high-income earners. The discussion reflects broader concerns about the fairness and practical impact of tax policy reforms on everyday investors.

Key details

• The analysis focuses on a scenario where an investor makes a $309,000 capital gain under the new CGT model.
• For a top-bracket taxpayer, the new model results in $131,000 in tax, compared to $73,000 under the previous system.
• The tax on the $309k gain under the new model is slightly less than what would be paid on $309k of wage earnings.
• The post was published on r/AusFinance on June 6, 2026, and has received 218 upvotes and 544 comments.

Discussion angles

• A top comment summarises that under the new model, a $309k gain in the top tax bracket results in $131k tax, compared to $73k previously, and slightly less than tax on equivalent wage earnings.
• Another user argues the scenario is unrealistic, noting few Australians invest $200k in shares and sell the entire portfolio within six years.
• A comment questions the selection of a 6-year-and-2-month timeframe, suggesting it may be cherry-picked, and notes the ASX was depressed in April 2020 due to COVID.
• A user points out that the new CGT model imposes $131k more tax than if the same gain were made through gambling, such as betting on black.